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Analyse des Bausektors 2023

Analyse des Bausektors 2023

The world economy entered 2023 with signs of slowing down in the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine war. The problem of high inflation, which continues even though it has slowed down, and the global effects of the tight monetary policy followed by central banks with large balance sheets are at the forefront. Fears of stagnation and recession continue in the world economy, which is under the pressure of increasing commodity prices. The optimistic scenario is that global inflation will decline from its peak in 2023.

As a result of the energy crisis caused by the war, developed economies, especially Europe, are seen as at risk. It is expected that the Eurozone will be affected more and for a longer period of time due to the negativities that may arise in the global economy and the energy bottleneck it entered with the Russia-Ukraine war. The hopes for developing countries (EMs) have also been under the pressure of Covid-19 restrictions, which the Beijing administration has not been able to abandon, especially in 2022.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) announced in its November Economic Outlook Report that it expects the world economy to grow by 3.1% in 2022, and that this rate will decrease to 2.2% in 2023. Making a statement at the beginning of December, OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann stated that the global economic outlook is expected to continue to deteriorate, but that it is pleasing that Covid-19 measures have begun to be relaxed in China.

The Chinese economy, which was shaken by the real estate crisis as well as the consumption that fell due to the lockdowns last year, is still under the influence of the epidemic, although it has tried to end the restrictions. In its statement dated December 20, 2022, the World Bank stated that the effects of the epidemic and the slowdown in the growth rate in the country's economy were followed by an uneven recovery, and reduced its growth expectation for 2023 from 4.5% to 4.3%. The organization's growth forecast for the Chinese economy in 2022 is 2.7%.